The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actress
By Darren Williams
7th December 2009

The winners of this award traditionally range from the sublime (Juliette Binoche, Cate Blanchett) to the ridiculous (Jennifer Hudson, Catherine Zeta Jones). It's an odd category, slavishly following the hype at times (Hudson winning what has to be the single most undeserved Oscar of all time) and at other times bravely bucking them (Binoche beating the aging Lauren Bacall) So this can at times be the most unpredictable category.

The Predicted Five

1. Penelope Cruz - Nine
Cruz could get in to the Oscars in one of two places this year. This could be the more likely place, the competition seems less fierce than in lead actress. Nine, the new musical take on 8 1/2 (Can't believe I actually had to write that sentence) seems set to hit big at the Oscars. I'm under no illusions that I'll enjoy the film, Rob Marshall has already proved he can't do musicals, at least not the kind I'll enjoy. As much as I like Cruz, she's not going to win again so soon after picking up her first Oscar.

2. Judi Dench - Nine
One of Oscars favourite actresses could easily pick up yet another nomination here. Her biggest competition is likely to be the large number of actresses from the same film. Alternatively, the sheer volume of name actress in Nine could see them all shut out. I think Cruz has the showier role and is a more likely nominee. But, never underestimate The Dench. I think The Academy would love to give her a second, more deserving, win than the one for Shakespeare in Love, and it has been more than a decade since she won. But this probably won't be her year.

3. Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
She seems to have been on the verge of being nominated once or twice in the past. The Departed was popular enough that she should have been pulled into supporting, she certainly should have been nominated for lead for Down to the Bone. Up in the Air looks set to be the film that finally breaks her into the big time. It's a sexy role, knowing, intelligent, the equal of Clooney. I've got a feeling this could be a Virginia Madsen in Sideways style nomination.

4. Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
This could be a breakthrough year for Kendrick. She plays a corporate slave, a single-minded and ambitious control-freak, a business woman on the rise who comes up with an idea that could threaten Clooney's way of life. She's feisty and intelligent but somewhat naive and uptight. She could have been a loathsome character, but she becomes oddly likeable. She's young, attractive and a star on the rise, she could be our winner. And she already has the NBR.

5. Mo'Nique - Precious
She's already been picked as the winner by a large number of people and her role does seem to be a bit baity. Playing the mentally, physically and sexually abusive monstrous mother of the lead character was always going to bring attention on the actress. On the basis of performances I've seen from her in the past, she'd be the least deserving Oscar winner since Jennifer Hudson.

Second Tier

6. Amy Adams - Julie & Julia
Adams is Julie Powell, a writer who tries to cook every recipe in Julia Child's cookbook, while keeping a blog about her progress. As absolutely uninspiring as that sounds, Adams is one of the best actresses around at the moment and if the Academy like her enough to nominate her for nonsense like Doubt then they'll nominate her for absolutely anything.

7. Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Laurent was one of the better things about a poor film, but even then she wavered, the strength in her performances in one scene near disappearing in others. If fanboys had their way then her and Waltz would be the Brangelina of this ceremony. But she doesn't deserve the nomination, let alone the win.

8. Samantha Morton - The Messenger
The Messenger could be the dark horse of the ceremony. The tale of an army widow entering a relationship with the man who breaks the news about her husband's death takes the viewer into murky ethical waters. Morton is one of the best actresses working today, capable of bringing layers of turmoil to her characters. She's been nominated before (not as many times as she deserves) and it's looking more likely that she could make the cut this year.

Rosamund Pike in "An Education".

9. Rosamund Pike - An Education
In a film overflowing with potential supporting actress nominees, Pike's wonderfully ditzy turn is possibly the film's best hope of a breakthrough. Outwardly nothing more than a vacuous bimbo, Pike's performance suggests hidden depths and secrets. Mulligan may be getting the headlines, but this is just as much of a breakthrough performance.

10. Cara Seymour - An Education
Playing Mulligan's quiet mother, Seymour's excellent performance as a woman trying and failing to understand her daughter is a memorable turn in a film overflowing with great acting. At the moment she seems more likely to be dragged in if An Education smashes it and becomes a frontrunner, but she's got a lot of competition from her own film and she's probably not going to make it.

Third Tier

11. Kerry Fox - Bright Star
Fox is an actress whose been overlooked far too many times by the Oscars, surely anyone's whose seen her Janet Frame must think that the Oscar was stolen from her that year. Sadly it seems as if she's going to be overlooked again. As Abbie Cornish's caring mother Fox impresses greatly, but at the moment her chances of success seem linked to the film's, and the film's fortunes are fading at present.

12. Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Now that Winslet has finally won one, Moore is going head to head with Linney in the race for greatest living actress not to have won an Oscar. She faces competition from herself this year in The Private Lives of Pippa Lee and there seems to be stronger competition than usual in supporting actress this year. Moore won't win, that much seems certain right now (of course things could always change) but she's the kind of actress who could gain traction and get a surprise nomination as we get closer to the nominations.

13. Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones
Sarandon is a perennial Oscar fav so she can never be ruled out, but there's one too many mothering roles in contention in this category, and there's nothing other than prestige suggesting she'll be a nominee at the moment. Possibly one to watch, but I'm not buying it just yet.

14. Emma Thompson - An Education
15. Olivia Williams - An Education
As much chance as each other as getting a nomination, so I'm including them both as one entry. Either or neither of them could make a breakthrough into the final list. They both play teacher figures, one kind, one stricter. Thompson has a great history with the Academy, while Williams is a talented actress who deserves the break. But they have a lot of competition within their own film and I think they're the outsiders for a nomination. But if I had to put money on one of them breaking through to the final five, it'd be Thompson.