The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actor
By Darren Williams
16th November 2009
Usually one of the quirkiest categories and as a result one of my favourites. Generally some of the finest actors win and the Academy seem to be far more broad-minded in who they nominate here. With that in mind, here's my predictions.
The Predicted Five
1. Peter Capaldi - In the Loop
Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but In the Loop did make a bit of a splash in America and an adapted screenplay nomination seems highly likely (If Borat can do it while In the Loop can't then it says so much about the Academy). It may be hoping to think that a screenplay nomination could help Capaldi into supporting, but it's possible. Capaldi is a former Oscar winner and he is the star of the show. Malcolm Tucker is a fearsome creation and while he's too foul-mouthed to really be considered a contender for a leading Oscar, supporting seems perfect.
2. Richard Kind - A Serious Man
I'll say it outright, I want Kind to win. I haven't seen the film yet, but Kind is the type of actor I like to see get Oscars. He's the true definition of a supporting actor as well, he's a character player, always destined to prop up other performances instead of being the lead himself. He's also the king of sitcoms, improving even the most formulaic comedy through his presence and impressive comedic timing. Kind probably won't win, but a nomination will be nice enough, and as he's the best friend of George Clooney, he's already part of the in-crowd.
3. Peter Sarsgaard - An Education
One of the most overdue actors currently working. He should have been nominated as far back as his creepy performance in Boys Don't Cry, he should have been a strong challenger for the win for Shattered Glass. An Education seems to be the kind of role that Sarsgaard could be nominated, but not win for. At least he should be able to break through into the final five this time round, the buzz the rest of the film is receiving should carry him to a nomination.
4. Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Tucci is another actor who seems to be incredibly respected but often overlooked by awards bodies. If The Lovely Bones hits big (and it has the pedigree to do it) then Tucci has the potential to be the obvious winner in this category. Even if it doesn't live up to expectations then Tucci still could walk away with the nomination.
5. Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
The fanboys think Waltz's name should be carved on the statue already. I've already talked about what I think of the film and his performance elsewhere on the site so I won't go into too much depth. I think Waltz was good, not great, he certainly doesn't deserve to win against some of his competition. He could do it, but I have trouble seeing a lot of Academy members voting for this film to win.
Second Tier
6. Jeff Bridges - The Men Who Stare at Goats
Jeff Bridges is one of those actors who everyone wants to see win an Oscar. He's never won, even though he's been nominated several times for some great performances. He's been overlooked for some even better ones. He's been around for four decades, making him a product of the 70s, a revered era in American cinema, he also appears to be well-liked. His role here as the leader of an army unit of psychic warriors could be weird enough to keep him out of the final five, or quirky enough to win him the Oscar.
7. Matt Damon - Invictus
Playing a real-life person (South African rugby captain, Francois Pienaar) in a Clint Eastwood film would normally assure someone of a nomination. But Changeling missed out in lots of categories last year, including a supporting actor slot many thought was a sure thing, and Damon has competition from himself in the lead actor category. He could make it in quite easily, but right now I'm not quite feeling it.
Matt Damon in Eastwood's "Invictus".
8. Brian Gergaghty - The Hurt Locker
9. Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
I'm combining these as one entry because I basically see the same pros and cons for both. It's impossible to pick one of these two for a nomination right now, so it could be either or none. Jeremy Renner seems more likely to get a nomination than either Gergaghty or Mackie and they'll only get in if the film goes massive, and it seems like the buzz is dying down already.
10. Alfred Molina - An Education
Molina should have an Oscar nomination by now. He should have been here for Prick Up Your Ears at the very least. I'd love to put him in my final five for An Education but at the moment I'm not sure. Getting two acting nominations for the same film in the same category is often difficult, and Molina has Sarsgaard has competition. Like Damon, he's someone I can easily see making the list, but it depends on how well the Academy, and the precursors, take to the film as a whole.
Third Tier
11. Scott Bakula - The Informant!
Like many in this category this year, Bakula is a greatly respected actor in need of a role that really breaks him into the big time. His FBI agent here could be the one to do it. But it seems a little weak right now, more fan rumours than any actual buzz or hype. Time will tell though, and if Damon gets in for The Informant! Instead of Invictus, he could pull Bakula in with him.
12. Zach Galifianakis - The Hangover
His chances of actually getting nominated are about zero. But there remains minor buzz. He was the best thing about an idiotic movie and his performance is actually a pretty great comedic one. The people who claim he'll be nominated are saying that Downey Jr got nominated in similar circumstances last year, and that is true. The difference is Downey is a greatly respected actor who had a major year last year. He's also the kind of comeback kid the Academy adores. Zach is a great stand-up, but he doesn't have the background to get a nomination for this kind of role quite yet.
13. Richard Gere - Amelia
Like so many on this list, his chances depend on how well the film itself is received. But I think if he gets in it'll be a huge surprise. The buzz isn't that great and I have to feel that if he couldn't make it in for Chicago when seemingly everyone else in the cast did then he's never going to be nominated.
14. Jackie Earle Haley - Watchmen
Once again this is more a product of fanboy wishing than reality. Watchmen itself was a pretty bad film, redeemed in part by Haley's blistering performance. He may be popular enough after his Little Children nomination to find himself on the list again, but Watchmen wasn't the Dark Knight style hit that people were hoping for, and it's difficult to see Haley breaking through the competition for a good role in a bad film.
15. Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road
I'm never sold on child actors until I've seen them at work. So as much as I'm rooting for The Road to be an upset winner, or at least get nominated in all the major categories (Especially Cave & Ellis for score) I feel wrong predicting him just yet. Once I see the film I could easily change my mind, but as of right now, Smit-McPhee falls victim to my doubt over the ability of most child performers.