The State of the Race: Best Actress
By Darren Williams
24th October 2009
I hate to say it, but best actress is often the weakest category at the Oscars year after year. Think about the great actresses in this world. Not the popular ones, the great ones. Then think about some of the best actress winners. Not really an equal match, is it? Charlize Theron, Reese Witherspoon, Hilary Swank and Halle Berry have all won Oscars this century. That really says it all. This year looks to be the year of the bright young thing with lots of the actresses currently picking up buzz being young and heading for their first or second nomination, mixed with some potential nominations for always the bridesmaids never the brides names like Annette Bening and Michelle Pfeiffer also in the mix. So the predicted top 5 as of right now are;
1. Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Attracting lots of buzz for her role as Keats' lover Fanny Brawne, but it feels almost like she could be competing with Mulligan and Sidibe for a breakthrough slot and there might not be enough room for all three. The fact that Cornish is a bit of an unknown could hurt her slightly, but I think what aids Cornish a great deal is her performance coming from a Jane Campion film, something that should help at least in getting Academy members to watch her film.
2. Carey Mulligan - An Education
Like Cornish, Mulligan has the fact that she's an unknown against her. But she's getting the kind of buzz that bring comparisons to Julie Christie's breakout role in Darling and Audrey Hepburn's in Roman Holiday as a young woman learning about the world. At the moment she's my pick for the win simply because she seems to have 'it', whatever 'it' may be.
3. Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Already one Oscar nomination at a tender age, given the pedigree of this film, she has to be an early favourite for the nomination for her role as a raped and murdered girl looking down at her killer from heaven. She's unlikely to win it yet though, she's too young and the competition is too hard. If she is nominated again, the second time in her teens, expect her to win one before much longer.
4. Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
This seems to be the year of the bright young things. Sidibe stars as the abused young woman who turns her life around. She's overweight, illiterate, being abused by both parents, but she has a dream. Sidibe could be carried to a nomination by the film, or Mo'Nique could steal all her thunder.
5. Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
It's Streep. She has a film out. She'll be nominated. IMO, she never deserves it. This is actually getting idiotic. Every two years or so she's nominated, her fans get convinced she's going to win (and make no mistake, hardcore Streep fans are some of the most annoying on the internet, refusing to accept that anyone can possibly not think she's the greatest woman who ever happened to turn up on camera), we have to listen to "It's been x amount of years since she won, she has to win again" accompanied by floods of tears and "This year will be her year! She gives great speeches!". She doesn't win, she just takes the place of someone more deserving and we have to hear it all over again next time around. The Academy need to just give her a lifetime award and stop inflicting the nominations on us.
Second Tier
Annette Bening - Mother and Child
A nod for Bening is never out of the question and her role as a woman who gave her daughter up for adoption years earlier seems Oscar-friendly. And it's easy to see her slipping in again here. But I have the feeling she just isn't going to win unless it's a lifetime award or a sympathy win.
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Nine could see Cotillard prove her Oscar win wasn't just a case of a beautiful actress uglying up (Oh, how the Academy likes them). It could also backfire and she could be lost among the crowd of female talent in Nine. Either way, this year could be a make or break for her.
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces
If Cruz hadn't just won I think she'd be more of a certainty for a nomination. She's been nominated before for a Pedro film and she's obviously hugely popular with The Academy. She also runs the risk of splitting her own vote between this and Nine. I wouldn't be surprised to see her sneak in though.
Charlotte Gainsbourg in the magnificent "Antichrist"
Charlotte Gainsbourg - Antichrist
In a just world, Gainsbourg would be a front-runner. But you have to feel her performance and the film itself is too raw, brutal and controversial for the Oscars. I would love to predict her for a nomination and even the win, but I'm going to have to say she's a real longshot.
Michelle Monagahan - Trucker
Getting absolute raves for her role as a trucker who is forced to look after the son she hasn't seen in years, Monaghan could be on the verge of breaking through to the big time. If there weren't so many other actresses in her position this year, she'd be in my top five.
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
An early front-runner, Pfeiffer seems to have fallen from favour a little. It would be great to see her regain some ground but the general word seems to be her performance is stronger than the film she's in. It hasn't hurt winners in the past from Cotillard to Jessica Lange and beyond, but if someone else takes the buzz then her comeback will falter.
Hilary Swank - Amelia
Two nominations. Two undeserved wins. Playing a real life person. I have this horrible feeling she'll end up in the final five, but I can dream that she'll miss out.
Third Tier
Jennifer Connelly - Creation
She's been here before and won, but she's been out of favour for a few years. This biopic of Darwin is proving to be somewhat controversial and that could hurt her chances.
Natalie Portman - Brothers
She's a bright young thing and people want another nomination for her and in time she'll probably get it. But at the moment it feels like she has a squad of cheerleaders every time she has a film out and there's nothing that's making this performance feel like the one that'll win her a second nod.
Audrey Tautou - Coco Avant Chanel
Like many other popular actress, Tautou has a vast amount of support for a nomination. Basically she's the kind of person people want to win an Oscar. She's playing a real-life person, which always tends to go down well with the Academy. But I can't help but think that if Amelie couldn't get her nominated, this certainly won't.
Robin Wright-Penn - The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
A well-respected actress who many feel is long overdue for a nomination, this could be her year. The film, with all of its dominatrix lesbians, runaway teenagers and bipolar mothers seems like it could give Wright-Penn the room to really show her range. On the other hand it could just be too quirky (and not in a sweet-natured way) for Academy members to embrace.